NEM’s XEM Daily Analysis – 14/11/18

NEMXEM

Key Highlights

  • NEM’s XEM fell by 2.52% on Tuesday, partially reversing Monday’s 20.41% rally, to end the day at $0.10948.
  • A start of a day intraday low $0.10743 saw NEM’s XEM hold above the day’s first major support level at $0.0974.
  • NEM’s XEM rallied to a mid-morning intraday high $0.12579, breaking through the first major resistance level at $0.1220 before hitting reverse.
  • The extended bearish trend formed at late April’s swing hi $0.46546 remained intact, with NEM’s XEM continuing to fall well short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.1695.

NEM’s XEM Price Support

NEM’s XEM fell by 2.52% on Tuesday, partially reversing Monday’s 20.41% Coincheck driven rally, to end the day at $0.10948.

A bullish start to the day saw NEM’s XEM continue on with Monday’s rally, with NEM’s XEM moving through to a mid-morning intraday high $0.12579, NEM’s XEM breaking through the first major resistance level at $0.1220, while falling short of $0.13 levels and the second major resistance level at $0.1316.

Resistance on the way through to $0.13 levels ultimately did the damage, as investors looked to take some froth off the top, leading to a late morning reversal that continued through to the day’s end.

NEM’s XEM fell back to the 2nd half of a day low $0.1085 before steadying, the reversal seeing NEM’s XEM hold above a start of a day intraday low $0.10743 that left the day’s first major support level untested.

In spite of Monday’s rally, the extended bearish trend remained firmly intact, with NEM’s XEM continuing to fall well short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.1695 and reaffirmed by Tuesday’s reversal.

At the time of writing, NEM’s XEM was down 0.68% to $0.10873, with a relatively choppy start to the day seeing NEM’s XEM fall to a morning low $0.10484 before moving through to a morning high $0.11348, the moves through the early part of the day leaving the day’s major support and resistance levels untested.

For the day ahead, a move back through $0.1142 would another run at $0.12 levels to bring the day’s first major resistance level at $0.1210 into play, with a shift in sentiment across the broader market through the mid-morning supporting an afternoon recovery, though NEM’s XEM will need to hold onto $0.11 levels to avoid another sell-off.

Failure to move back through $0.11 levels by the early afternoon could see NEM’s XEM pullback through the morning low $0.10484 to test the day’s first major support level at $0.1027, with sub-$0.10 support levels unlikely to be tested on the day, barring a material shift in support for Bitcoin SV ahead of tomorrow’s hard fork.

Investors will be mindful of disruption across the broader market should tomorrow’s hard fork go against the grain.

XEM/USD Daily Chart
XEM/USD Daily Chart

Looking at the Technical Indicators

  • Major Support Level: $0.1027
  • Major Resistance Level: $0.1210
  • Fib 23.6% Retracement Level: $0.1695
  • Fib 38% Retracement Level: $0.226
  • Fib 62% Retracement Level: $0.3174

Bitcoin Cash – Market Jitters Ease Ahead of the Hard Fork

bitcoin cash

Market sentiment towards Thursday’s hard fork has shifted in favor of Bitcoin ABC and the early morning gains in Bitcoin Cash certainly reflect a sense of calm, though it’s too early to be counting one’s chickens just yet.

Looking across at the respective futures prices for Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV, we’ve seen a pullback in Bitcoin SV, which has been in reverse through the early hours of this morning, falling from an all-time high $209.19 to $175.50 at the time of writing, an 18.3% fall this morning, which is quite a significant statement.

For Bitcoin ABC, it’s a somewhat different story, but nonetheless continuing to reflect a shift in favor of the Bitcoin ABC team ahead of the fork, with the futures price standing at 0.6767694 BCH at the time of writing, an upward trend having kicked in through the early hours of this morning, with Bitcoin ABC rising from 0.59206 BCH to a morning high 0.68889 BCH before easing back.

If it was down to the futures price alone, the forward guidance would be a Bitcoin ABC victory, but it’s the hash rate and not the futures price that wins the war.

On the hash rate side of the equation, the war has been heating up. While CoinGeek is reported to have 36.8% of the Bitcoin Cash network’s hashrate, Bitmain, which backs the Bitcoin ABC camp, is one of the largest holders of Bitcoin Cash. Calling on the Chinese mining farm community, Bitmain has asked for the deployment of almost 100,000 Antminer S9 miners ahead of the hard fork. A deployment of this magnitude would certainly shift the balance, though it remains to be seen whether the Bitmain team was able to muster up enough support to take it on the day.

BTC/USD Daily Price Forecast – Bitcoin Surprisingly Stable; Range Trading Strategies Developing

Against the U.S. dollar, valuations in Bitcoin (BTC/USD) are developing in ways which suggest a positive potential for range trading strategies.  Somewhat counterintuitively, Bitcoin has actually been one of the market’s most stable assets over the last several weeks. Stock markets have been met with major selling pressure and emerging market assets have experienced turmoil during this period.  But price behavior in BTC has managed to hold up in an incredibly resilient fashion, and this brightens the outlook for those bullish on the space as we head into the final weeks of this year.

  • Critical Resistance:   6,615.00
  • Critical Support:   6,252.10
  • Trading Bias:  Bullish
  • Bitcoin Crypto Strategy:  Buy at 6,359.60

This creates an outlook in which bullish trades have the potential to generate gains.  That said, it is important that crypto traders remember to maintain a stop loss when trading in these instruments.  From the longer-term perspective, BTC/USD is trading just above critical support levels.  These levels are significant enough that, if tripped, they could force a mass exodus and send price levels much lower in a short period of time.

Bitcoin 1H Chart
Bitcoin 1H Chart

At this stage, there is little reason for concern as range trading conditions have clearly developed for these instruments.  Under these conditions, the conventional wisdom tells us that we buy as prices approach the bottom-end of a trading range.  In Bitcoin, this implies a buy zone which falls near the 6,359.60 level.  Stop losses can be placed under the prior lows from October 31st at 6,252.10.  Crypto traders should consider taking partial profits on an approach toward the 6,615.00 resistance level from November 7th.  Once this occurs, traders can move to stop losses to the breakeven point for the remainder of the position.

XRP Daily Price Forecast – Ripple Forming A Higher Range

Against the U.S. dollar, valuations in the Ripple cryptocurrency (XRP/USD) look to be in the process of forming a higher range on the 4-hour charts. Thus far, November has been a very good month for those with long positions in Ripple.  After a period of slight correction (retracement), XRP/USD has found near-term support which may work as a platform in sending the crypto pair higher.  With the moving average cluster moving up to provide extra support under current levels, crypto traders can use these levels to initiate new buy positions near 0.49510.

  • Critical Resistance:   0.57000
  • Critical Support:   0.49510
  • Trading Bias:  Bullish
  • Bitcoin Crypto Strategy:  Buy at 0.51650 / 0.49510

Indicator readings in the CCI are actually showing a bullish divergence with the short-term thrust higher near 0.53000.  This is another positive factor which strengthens the case for a retest of the November 6th high at 0.57000.  This area is likely to encounter some profit-taking from those with long positions in XRP/USD.  But if we do manage to break above these levels, traders are likely to begin focusing on the previous double-top resistance (which has formed at 0.62250).

XRP/USD Chart
XRP/USD Chart

On the downside, a break of support at 0.49510 will target a larger move into the lows which were posted at the end of October (near 0.48800).  These lows mark a double-bottom formation which should provide some additional support if tested.  At this stage, the focus remains on the topside, and this will continue to be the case as long as support levels at 0.49510 remain intact.  Longer-term trends on the daily charts look to be based near current levels, and this strengthens the argument that markets are ready to make a push higher in the XRP/USD crypto pair.

BCH/USD Daily Price Forecast – Bitcoin Cash Bouncing From Fibonacci Support

Bitcoin Cash

Price behavior in Bitcoin Cash is showing a reversal from the prior trends posted during the early parts of November.  Against the U.S. dollar Bitcoin Cash has rallied sharply since the beginning of the month, and BCH/USD is currently posting a corrective move as a means to work off its overbought price conditions. All of this activity has increased volatility in the instrument but we are currently coming into some important technical levels which can be used for new positioning stances in the sessions ahead.

  • Critical Resistance:   646.80
  • Critical Support:   410.10
  • Trading Bias:  Moderately Bullish
  • USD/CNY Forex Strategy:  Buy at 503.10  

These latest impulse moves in BCH/USD have sent the pair back into Fibonacci support on the 2-hour charts.  If we measure from the lows from late October to the highs from November 8th (at 646.80), we can see the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement comes in close proximity to historical support levels (at 503.10).  The confluence of historical support and Fibonacci retracement readings strengthens the level of importance for the 503.10 price zone.  This suggests that we can use this level as tradable support in the establishment of new positioning stances.

Bitcoin Cash Chart
Bitcoin Cash Chart

Given the extent of the market’s recent price moves, short-term swing traders may elect to stop out the position if these Fibonacci support levels are broken.  A downside violation of 503.10 suggests a full retracement of the prior bull wave and targets a move back into support at 410.10.  With the two-way activity which has defined sentiment for this month, it makes sense to be aggressive with stop losses and take profit levels over the next few sessions.  Prices are currently caught within the moving average cluster, and indicator readings are almost exactly at mid-range (which softens the bullish bias).

NEM’s XEM Technical Analysis – Eyeing Resistance Levels – 13/11/18

nem

Key Highlights

  • NEM’s XEM rallied by 20.41% on Monday, following a 0.55% fall on Sunday, to end the day at $0.11243.
  • A mid-morning intraday low $0.09203 called on support at the first major support level at $0.092 ahead of a late morning rally.
  • The late morning rally saw NEM’s XEM break through the day’s major resistance levels, with NEM’s XEM holding onto $0.11 levels by the day’s end.
  • The extended bearish trend formed at late April’s swing hi $0.46546 remained intact, with NEM’s XEM continuing to fall well short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.1695.

How to Buy NEM’s XEM

 

NEM’s XEM Price Support

NEM’s XEM jumped by 20.41% on Monday, following a 0.55% decline on Sunday, to end the day at $0.11243.

A range bound start to the day saw NEM’s XEM ease back to a mid-morning intraday low $0.09203, calling on support at the day’s first major support level of $0.092 before a late morning rally kicked in, driven by news of NEM’s XEM being reinstated for trading on Coincheck.

The late morning rally saw NEM’s XEM break through the day’s major resistance levels to strike a late morning intraday high $0.1166 before easing back to a range bound afternoon, with sub-$0.11 support levels holding back NEM’s XEM from a more material reversal later in the day.

In spite of the day’s rally, the extended bearish trend remained firmly intact, with NEM’s XEM continuing to fall well short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.1695.

At the time of writing, NEM’s XEM was up 5.48% to $0.11859, with NEM’s XEM rallying from a start of a day dip to a morning low $0.10743 to a morning high $0.12066, the early move seeing NEM’s XEM come within range of the first major resistance level at $0.1220 before easing back.

For the day ahead, a move back through to $0.12 levels would support another run at the first major resistance level at $0.1220, with $0.13 levels and the second major resistance level at $0.1316 in play should momentum continue to side with NEM’s XEM, though we can expect some profit taking later in the day to see NEM’s XEM face plenty of resistance on any run at $0.13 levels.

Failure to move back through to $0.12 levels and hold through to the early afternoon could see NEM’s XEM hit reverse later in the day, with a fall through the morning low $0.10743 bringing sub-$0.10 levels and the day’s first major support level at $0.0974 into play, though sentiment will need to materially deteriorate for sub-$0.10 support levels to come into play.

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Looking at the Technical Indicators

  • Major Support Level: $0.0974
  • Major Resistance Level: $0.1070
  • Fib 23.6% Retracement Level: $0.1695
  • Fib 38% Retracement Level: $0.226
  • Fib 62% Retracement Level: $0.3174

Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Forecast – Crypto Investors On Cautious Stance Over SEC’s Regulatory Pursuit

Bitcoin was bullish for the majority of last week, hitting new monthly high’s on optimism for more institutional investments, but it returned some of its recent gains on regulatory jitters. The SEC reportedly ended its public comment period on Bitcoin ETF applications, which suggests that a decision could be announced anytime now. However, BTCUSD pair lost all its gains and closed in red last week as traders moved funds from exchanges to wallets, as pre-cautionary efforts while regulators crack down on decentralized exchanges such as EtherDelta. The BTCUSD pair is still maintaining its consolidative move with price action well inside the highs and lows of last 2 weeks.  As of writing this article, BTCUSD pair is trading at $6401.9 up by 0.17% on the day.

News of South Korean Exit Scam Put A Dent in Bullish Investor Sentiment

Bitcoin price declined recently below the $6,300 support before correcting higher against the US Dollar. Analysts are of opinion that BTCUSD pair could be in for a recovery rally as the pair defended a key support level over the weekend. As risk sentiment took a dovish turn today owing to concerns of the global economic slowdown, fund flow changed direction from equity markets and risky assets. While most traders preferred US Greenback, there was some level of activity in crypto markets as some investors chose to funnel funds into major crypto instruments such as BTCUSD. However, the gain in major instruments was limited owing to news of another exit scam in South Korea.

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While the crypto market is already seeing limited fund flow owing to SEC’s crackdown of unregulated brokers, news hit the market that South Korean blockchain company Pure Bit has reportedly stolen $2.7 million worth of investors’ money after raising 13,000 Ethereum in an ICO. According to The Next Web, hours after moving all raised funds out of its wallet, the company shut down its website, deleted its social media accounts and kicked all users off its chat group. Over the past two years, exit scammers have stolen more than $100 million worth of cryptocurrency. Overall price action in the crypto market today was range bound with slight bullish bias. ETHUSD pair is trading at 212.30 up by 0.64% on the day.

Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 13/11/18

Bitcoin Cash Sees More Red

Bitcoin Cash fell by 2.78% on Monday, following on from a 4.1% slide on Sunday, to end the day at $520.6.

A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin Cash slide to a late morning intraday low $504.7, Bitcoin Cash sliding through the first major support level at $516.33 to find support at $500 and avoid testing the second major support level at $497.17.

Recovering to an early afternoon Bitcoin Cash intraday high $544 that fell short of the first major resistance level at $556.53 was as good as it got, with Bitcoin Cash easing back through the rest of the day to $520 levels, the moves driven by the news wires, as the hard fork rapidly approaches.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 1.18%, with Bitcoin Cash falling to an early morning low $508.5 before recovering, the day’s major support and resistance levels left untested early on.

For the day ahead, a move through the morning high $522 to $525 levels would support a run at the first major resistance level at $541.5, though much will depend on the news wires through the day, the hash rates of Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV key for direction, Bitcoin ABC positive news likely to bring the day’s second major resistance level at $562.4 into play.

Failure to move back through the morning high could see Bitcoin Cash take a bigger hit later in the day, support for Bitcoin SV likely to lead to a pullback through the morning low to call on support at the first major support level at $502.2, sub-$500 levels in play should hard fork jitters build.

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Litecoin Holds onto the $50s

Litecoin fell by 0.93% on Monday, following on from a 2.04% fall on Sunday, to end the day at $50.33.

A start of a day intraday high $51.34 came up short of the first major resistance level at $52.03, with a slide to a morning low $50.02 seeing Litecoin hold above the first major support level at $49.54. Following an early afternoon recovery, a late in the day intraday low $50 also avoided the major support levels on the day.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down 0.38% to $50.14, with Litecoin falling through the first major support level at $49.77 to a morning low $49.52 before recovering to $50 levels.

For the day ahead, a move back through a start of a day high $50.33 to $50.6 would support a run at the first major resistance level at $51.11, though sentiment across the broader market will have an influence on the day, the second major resistance level at $51.9 unlikely to be tested barring particularly positive news hitting the wires.

Failure to move back through the morning high could see Litecoin decline further later in the day, a pullback through the first major support level to the morning low $49.52 bringing the second major support level at $49.22 into play before any recovery, sub-$49 support levels unlikely to be tested on the day.

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Ripple Bucks the Trend

Ripple’s XRP gained 2.77% on Monday, following a 0.15% rise on Sunday, to end the day at $0.52403.

A relatively range bound start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP ease to a late morning intraday low $0.50519 before steadying, the morning low holding above the first major support level at $0.5012.

An early afternoon rally saw Ripple’s XRP break through the first major resistance level at $0.5155 and second major resistance level at $0.5210 to come up against the third major resistance level at $0.5353 before easing back, with Ripple’s XRP unable to hold above the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $0.5225 by the day’s end.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up 0.64% to $0.52738, Ripple’s XRP recovering from an early morning low $0.51591 to break through the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $0.5225 to strike a morning high $0.52795 before easing back, the day’s major support and resistance levels left untested.

For the day ahead, a hold above $0.5225 would support a run at $0.53 levels to bring the first major resistance level at $0.5378 into play before any pullback, $0.54 levels and the second major resistance level at $0.5515 unlikely to be in play, barring particularly positive news hitting the wires.

Failure to hold above the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $0.5225 could see Ripple’s XRP fall through the morning low $0.51591 to $0.50 levels, bringing the day’s first major support level at $0.5077 into play before any recovery, sub-$0.50 support levels unlikely to be in play on the day, barring materially negative news hitting the wires.

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The Best Altcoins

altcoins

Looking at the ICO market alone, there have been a total of 1,161 ICOs in 2018, at the time of writing, with total funds raised reaching a whopping $7.18bn.

In 2017, there were a total of 875 ICOs that raised $6.213m, an average $7.1m raised per ICO, compared with this year’s $6.18m. Going back to 2016, there were just 29 ICOs that raised a total of $90.25m, equivalent to an average $3m per ICO.

The growth is been exponential and with it, the number of altcoins that exist with little to no hope of ever going mainstream have also seen a sizeable increase, creating a minefield for prospective investors looking for a suitable investment that would be more of a long-term position than the short-term speculative trades that have fuelled the cryptomarkets over the last 12-months.

In the selection process of an altcoin, there are certainly some basic steps that are worth following, as one of the most important things an investor needs to do is to strip away possible scams and projects that will never get off the ground. After all, the ICO market is still largely unregulated.

Some of the key steps in peeling away the cryptomarket layers in search of a viable altcoin include:

  • Successful Initial Coin Offering: It goes without saying that selecting an altcoin that failed to successfully raise the required funds during its ICO are probably best left untouched, when considering the sizeable number of altcoins to choose from.
  • White Paper: The quality of the white paper, not just in terms of the team’s goals, but also what they are trying to achieve and why, with the appropriate technological detail is essential. A lack of a white paper or one with little detail that provides prospective investors with little on what will be on offer and how funds raised will be used should also be avoided.
  • ICO Rating: There’s no harm in reviewing analysis of the altcoin’s ICO and then assessing how the team has performed since fundraising, with successful completion of milestones, with little to no delay, a demonstration of strong capabilities to deliver the blockchain to market.
  • Sponsors and the Team: By viewing the altcoin’s website, you can evaluate the level of experience the team has and who stands behind the team, full bios being a must. In addition, regular updates on progress against the project roadmap will provide some insight into an altcoin’s prospects down the road.
  • The Offering, its Value, and Outlook: As is the case with any investment, it ultimately boils down to supply and demand. While the broader market largely tracks itself, driven by news and altcoin inclusion onto exchanges, the value proposition will become a major influence on the outlook for an altcoin and there have been some examples of altcoins outperforming the broader market due to successful adoption in the real world. Looking for solutions and product offerings that are likely to be adopted should be a consideration.

Looking across the broader market, there are a number of interesting altcoins that could see widespread adoption in the real world, and whose progress to date ticks the boxes set out above. Of the majors:

Ripple’s XRP (“XRP”): From the major altcoins in existence, Ripple’s platform has garnered the most interest to date, with Ripple delivering almost instantaneous cross-border money transfers with minimal fees. Ripple is in direct competition with financial institutions that have already begun to test the various platforms on offer. Transaction times are at around 4 seconds and transaction fees being equivalent to $0.004.

Stellar’s Lumen (“XLM”): Unlike true cryptocurrencies, the Stellar platform was developed to support cross-border transfers of value, including but not limited to payments. Chained conversions support multi-currency transactions, with Stellar’s Lumen being an intermediary currency. The Stellar network searches for the best available exchange rate on offer, which could either be a simple exchange from U.S Dollar to UK Sterling or via a chain, U.S Dollar to EUR to Swiss Franc to UK Sterling. Stellar’s Lumen is the intermediary between each individual link of the chain or between direct exchanges. Transaction times of between 2-5 seconds certainly put this high on the choice of platforms for cross-border transfers of value.

Litecoin (“LTC”): As a true cryptocurrency and in competition with Bitcoin to become the chosen alternative to fiat currency. Faster transaction times, a larger number of coins and early adoption by the market to remit cross border at speeds far greater than those on offer at financial institutions support longevity and relative price stability in more volatile market environments.

Looking across the rest of the altcoins, there are some value propositions that deliver interesting solutions to the real world, though significant uncertainty will deliver sizeable swings in price until there is some degree of traction. Some smaller altcoins by market cap, but nonetheless interesting include:

Civic (“CVC”): Developed to facilitate the better management of digital identities, incorporating blockchain verification technology to secure and protect the transfer of personal information. With so much data theft from the World Wide Web, a viable solution to identity protection is needed.

GIFTO (“GTO”): Developed to deliver a virtual gifting model, where the network is able to purchase virtual gifts with GIFTO tokens (GTOs) to transfer value to content creators on YouTube, Instagram or any other content / social media platform. The team behind GIFTO has already delivered Uplive, an existing non-blockchain platform that generates significant income for tens of thousands of content creators from their fan base.

Blockchain – Here to Stay and in Rapid Adoption Mode

blockchain

There will be few that will argue against the evolution of blockchain technology and the anticipated benefits of blockchain to the real world, with a broad spectrum of industries testing blockchain technology in a bid to take advantage of the technology that most believe will deliver, not only efficiency gains across multiple industries, but deliver much needed transparency and data protection that has been lacking for many years.

Social media platforms, media companies, financial institutions and more have all been victims of identity theft and in some cases, the likes of Sony and Facebook springing to mind, the outcomes have been somewhat embarrassing to the industry moguls and to the shareholders who ultimately pay the price.

Scalability, data protection, and cost-effectiveness are certain words that most would consider when exploring advancements in a particular business and blockchain technology and the continued advancements certainly deliver on all three counts.

Some hesitation in adoption has been apparent across a number of industries, while others have been incorporated into everyday practices with ease, Ripple’s various cross-border payment platforms being one and the degree of success may have as much to do with a team’s ability to appropriately position the technology, enabling the right industries to explore and ultimately adopt.

As time passes, more testing is underway, with multinationals even looking to enter partnerships to develop need specific blockchain technology that further reinforces the positive outlook for the technology developed and rolled out in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis.

While the news wires have been relatively silent on the cryptocurrency front, it’s been a very different story on the blockchain front, with Central Banks, financial institutions, logistics and trade companies, gaming sites, media, and entertainment organizations and e-commerce platforms, to name but a few, busy behind the scenes developing and beta testing technology with the sole intention to adapt and move forward.

Why the euphoria?

Simply put, it’s a case of cutting out the middleman, generating fees without the cream being taken off the top, which should ultimately translate into wide profit margins, for some at least.

White papers of the more successful blockchain launches have not fallen short in highlighting the shortcomings of industry practices and so, the only thing that remains is for the right people to be in the right place to deliver on the promise of what the white papers contain.

The blockchain revolution has started and it’s not going to end any time soon.