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Cryptoverse: Jump or slump? $30k or $5k? Play the bitcoin roulette

By Medha Singh and Lisa Pauline Mattackal

(Reuters) – Plucky bitcoin’s been holding steady since seeing off the chaos of the FTX collapse, gathering its strength to rally towards the dizzy heights of $30,000 in 2023.

Battered bitcoin’s been unresponsive since being clobbered by the FTX collapse, taking in a deep ragged breath before plunging towards the depths of $5,000.

Place your bets, spin the wheel.

The world’s dominant cryptocurrency has certainly been uncharacteristically muted over the past two weeks, treading water between about $15,770 and $17,350 in the eerie wake of the FTX-induced market mini-crash in November.

What happens next is anyone’s guess.

“The question we need to be asking ourselves now is: Are there any sellers left in this market? To my mind, no, there aren’t that many left,” said Jacob Sansbury, co-founder of retail investor services firm Pluto.

Sansbury believes most over-leveraged miners, who tend to be large holders of bitcoin, have exited positions to pay off debts taken out in traditional money to fund their equipment and operations.

Indeed bitcoin’s recent calmness could be down to the fact that there are fewer coins to sell: the amount held on exchanges for trading stands at 1.97 million, Coinglass data shows, down steeply from 2.33 million at the start of the year.

Major offloading has already taken place; November saw a 7-day realized loss of $10.16 billion in bitcoin investments as investors were forced to exit long-term positions, the fourth-largest loss on record by this measure, according to Glassnode data.

The cryptocurrency has already dropped more than 60% in 2022 and set to see its first annual loss since 2018.

Many remaining investors are placing their bitcoin into offline “cold storage” according to on-chain data, which should strengthen a floor price around $16,000, said Bob Ras, co-founder of Sologenic, an exchange and digital asset firm.

“Barring any more surprises in the market, it’s hard to imagine BTC going significantly lower,” he added.

Ras believes that if it wasn’t for the high-profile collapse of crypto players FTX, Celsius and Terra this year, the price of bitcoin would be close to $25,000 now.

But this is crypto, and more surprises could well be in store, with a number of potential selling triggers on the horizon.

THE BEAR’S TALE

First potential peril is the risk of more bitcoin miners being forced to sell their holdings to stay afloat, as mining becomes increasingly expensive.

“Miners as a group start to become unprofitable under $20,000, so we’re below (that) point,” noted Ben McMillan, chief investment officer at IDX Digital Assets.

CrytpoQuant’s miner reserve indicator, which tracks the amount of bitcoin held in miners’ wallets, has dropped by about 7,722 bitcoin since November.

Market players also pointed to concerns about the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the world’s largest bitcoin fund with $10.9 billion in assets. Parent company Digital Currency Group, which owns Genesis Trading, owes $575 million to Genesis’ crypto lending arm, DCG’s CEO told shareholders on Nov. 22.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s discount to its net asset value, is at an all-time low of 48% and shares have not traded at a premium since March 2021, Coinglass data showed.

DCG last month said troubles at Genesis’ lending business had no impact on DCG and its subsidiaries, while Grayscale maintained it was business as usual and its underlying assets were unaffected.

“This could be the other shoe to drop,” said McMillan, referring to the possibility of Grayscale running into financial trouble. “That said, if bitcoin can hold the $15,000 line through the DCG workout, that would be a strong indicator going into 2023.

A more hawkish than expected Federal Reserve at its final meeting of the year on Wednesday could further erode risk appetite and bitcoin’s prospects, crypto watchers said.

GETTING TECHNICAL

The scenarios of bitcoin leaping to $30,000 or tumbling to $5,000 in 2023 were long-shot possibilities flagged by VanEck and Standard Chartered, respectively.

When it comes to the technicals, several analysts pointed to indicators showing bitcoin may have found support between $16,000 and $16,800.

The cryptocurrency could also run into resistance around the $17,490 level, said Eddie Tofpik, head of technical analysis at ADM Investor Services, cautioning that any long-term rally was likely to be challenging.

“Anytime we see a rally, it’s one step up and then two or three steps down,” he said.

Vetle Lunde, analyst at Arcane Research, said long-term bets could be appealing in the wake of the November turmoil.

Nonetheless, uncertainty reigns.

“Bear in mind that massive drawdowns tend to be followed by a long-lasting directionless market filled with apathy and unfathomable second-guessing,” Lunde added.

(Reporting by Lisa Pauline Mattackal and Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Pravin Char)

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Former FTX CEO Bankman-Fried arrested in Bahamas after U.S. files charges

(Editor’s note: This story contains language in paragraph 18 that some readers may find offensive)

By Jasper Ward, Luc Cohen and Angus Berwick

(Reuters) – FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was arrested in the Bahamas at the behest of U.S. prosecutors on Monday, the day before he was due to testify before Congress about the abrupt failure last month of one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges.

The arrest marks a stunning fall from grace for the 30-year-old entrepreneur widely known by his initials SBF, who rode a boom in bitcoin and other digital assets to become a billionaire many times over until FTX’s rapid demise.

The exchange, launched in 2019 and based in the Bahamas, filed for bankruptcy Nov. 11 after it struggled to raise money to stave off collapse as traders rushed to withdraw $6 billion from the platform in just 72 hours. Since then it emerged Bankman-Fried secretly used $10 billion in customer funds to prop up his trading business.

The arrest came as Bankman-Fried prepared to lash out at his former lawyers at Sullivan and Cromwell, new FTX CEO John Ray and rival exchange operator Binance at a Congressional hearing.

In the testimony, a draft copy of which was seen by Reuters, Bankman-Fried planned to say he was pressured by Sullivan and Cromwell lawyers to nominate Ray as CEO following the sudden exodus of customer funds. And when within minutes he changed his mind, following an offer of billions of dollars of fresh funding, he was told it was too late.

Bankman-Fried will now be unable to testify, according to Congresswoman Maxine Waters, who said in a statement she was surprised to hear of his arrest. Ray’s testimony will go ahead.

Bankman-Fried was arrested shortly after 6:00 pm Monday (2300 GMT) at his apartment complex, a luxury gated community called the Albany, and will appear in a magistrate court on Tuesday, Bahamian police said. The Bahamas attorney general’s office said it expects he will be extradited to the United States.

A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s office in Manhattan confirmed Bankman-Fried had been arrested in the Bahamas but declined to comment on the charges.

U.S. prosecutors said they had a sealed indictment against Bankman-Fried and charges would be revealed on Tuesday. The New York Times reported he faces fraud and money laundering charges. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission separately authorized charges relating to Bankman-Fried’s violations of securities laws, the regulator said on Monday.

Bankman-Fried and his lawyer Mark Cohen did not immediately respond to requests for comment, nor did Sullivan and Cromwell, FTX, Ray and Binance.

Bankman-Fried has said he doesn’t think he has any criminal liability. “I didn’t ever try to commit fraud,” Bankman-Fried said in a Nov. 30 interview at the New York Times’ Dealbook Summit.

CRYPTO INDUSTRY REELING

FTX’s demise sent shockwaves through an already-battered cryptocurrency industry, which has seen a string of meltdowns this year that have taken down other key players including Voyager Digital and Celsius Network.

More trouble might be on the horizon for the industry. Reuters reported Monday that some Justice Department prosecutors believe they have gathered sufficient evidence in their long-running investigation of Binance to charge the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange and some top executives.

A Binance spokesperson told Reuters for the article: “We don’t have any insight into the inner workings of the U.S. Justice Department, nor would it be appropriate for us to comment if we did.”

Bitcoin was steady at $17,150. It is down more than 60% this year.

MEA CULPA

Since the collapse of FTX, Bankman-Fried has given numerous media interviews apologizing for his mistakes and explaining what happened at the company, something that legal experts said could allow prosecutors to point to inconsistencies to undermine his credibility with a jury.

“The defense is going to be completely boxed in by the prior statements SBF has made and the very incisive questions he has answered in the press and on social media,” said criminal defense attorney and former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti.

In his written testimony, Bankman-Fried repeated his mea culpa: “I would like to start by formally stating, under oath: I fucked up,” he wrote.

Then, he launched into an explanation of how things went badly at FTX and his hedge fund Alameda Research, while criticizing Sullivan and Cromwell and Ray as well as arch rival Binance for their actions as his firm imploded.

UNDER PRESSURE

Describing his decision to give up his role as CEO of FTX and appoint Ray, Bankman-Fried said he was pressured to do so by Sullivan and Cromwell and the general counsel of FTX’s U.S. unit, who he said was a former lawyer at the law firm.

Bankman-Fried said less than 10 minutes after he had signed a document at 4.30 am on Nov. 10 to make Ray the CEO of FTX, he received “a potential funding offer for billions of dollars.” Bankman-Fried said he told his counsel to rescind the CEO appointment a few minutes later but was told it was already too late to do so.

Bankman-Fried said he had since been cut off from FTX’s systems and Ray had not responded to his emails offering help or other information.

Bankman-Fried, who had become a prominent and unconventional figure known for his wild hair, t-shirts and shorts during crypto’s boom, said the fortunes of FTX and his trading firm Alameda declined rapidly this year as crypto currencies crashed amid rising interest rates.

In late 2021, he said Alameda had net asset value of more than $50 billion and manageable levels of debt. That became unsustainable as digital assets declined.

“Last year, my net worth was valued at $20b,” Bankman-Fried wrote. “Last I saw, I believe my bank account had about $100k in it.”

(Reporting by Jasper Ward in Washington, Luc Cohen and Jack Queen in New York, Brian Ellsworth in Miami and Angus Berwick in London; Editing by Megan Davies, Paritosh Bansal and Lincoln Feast)

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Factbox-Recent high-profile extradition cases

By Jack Queen

(Reuters) – FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried could surrender to United States custody after his indictment and arrest in the Bahamas or fight removal under the terms of the island nation’s extradition treaty with the United States, potentially joining a number of high-profile extradition cases in recent years.

Here are some recent high profile extradition cases:

WIKILEAKS FOUNDER JULIAN ASSANGE

Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has been fighting extradition to the United States on espionage charges since he was arrested in London in 2019, after spending seven years there holed up in the Ecuadorian Embassy.

Assange, an Australian citizen, was charged by U.S. federal prosecutors with publishing secret diplomatic cables and military reports on his Wikileaks site, in what U.S. authorities have dubbed one of the biggest leaks of classified information in history.

A UK court initially blocked Assange’s extradition due to concerns over his mental health, but the United States successfully appealed the decision.

Assange appealed in August. He has said he is being persecuted for his political beliefs and that he was acting as a journalist in publishing the leaked documents.

HUAWEI CFO MENG WANZHOU

Huawei Technologies’ chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, was held in Canada for nearly three years as the United States sought her extradition on charges of helping the Chinese telecom giant evade sanctions against Iran.

Meng was detained in Vancouver in 2018, and U.S. federal prosecutors unveiled fraud and conspiracy charges against her the following month.

During extradition proceedings, Meng’s lawyers alleged Canadian authorities unlawfully detained her and said her conduct was not criminal under Canadian law, a requirement for extradition.

Meng returned to China in September 2021 after entering into a deferred prosecution agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice, which withdrew its extradition request.

JOAQUIN ‘EL CHAPO’ GUZMAN

Mexican drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán was extradited to the United States on a raft of federal charges in January 2017 after years of delays and a brazen escape from a maximum- security prison in Mexico.

Guzman was arrested in Mexico in 2014, but he escaped prison a year later through a tunnel dug under his cell. He was recaptured in January 2016.

Mexican authorities had previously insisted Guzman serve a lengthy prison sentence at home before being sent to the United States but changed their position after his escape.

Guzman’s lawyers delayed his extradition for years by filing a flurry of legal injunctions, but the kingpin finally exhausted his appeals and was sent to the United States.

Guzman convicted at trial in New York federal court on all counts against him in February 2019. He was sentenced to life in prison.

ACCOMPLICES IN CARLOS GHOSN ESCAPE

Michael Taylor and his son, Peter, were extradited from the United States to Japan in March 2021 for helping former Nissan Motor Co Ltd Chairman Carlos Ghosn flee Tokyo in 2019 after being charged with financial crimes.

Japanese authorities said the Taylors hid Ghosn in an audio equipment box and smuggled him onto a plane to his native Lebanon which has no extradition treaty with Japan.

The Taylors asked a federal court to block their extradition to Japan, saying “bail jumping” is not a crime in Japan and that they would be subjected to “mental and physical torture” if incarcerated there.

A federal judge rejected the Taylors’ petition and cleared their extradition in January 2021. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected their appeal of the decision two months later.

(Reporting by Jack Queen in New York; Editing by Noeleen Walder, Matthew Lewis and Lincoln Feast.)

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Factbox-Global regulatory actions against FTX

(Reuters) – Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of bankrupt FTX cryptocurrency exchange, was arrested on Monday in The Bahamas after being criminally charged by U.S. prosecutors.

FTX and its units had already attracted scrutiny from regulators around the world.

Here’s a roundup of what global authorities are doing about FTX:

BAHAMAS

Police in The Bahamas arrested Bankman-Fried on Dec. 12, after the Caribbean nation received formal notification from the United States of criminal charges against him.

FTX’s group headquarters is in the Bahamas. The Securities Commission of the Bahamas in November froze the assets of FTX Digital Markets, the group’s local unit, and also appointed a provisional liquidator for the unit.

UNITED STATES

FTX is under investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Justice Department, and Commodity Futures Trading Commission, according to a source familiar with the investigations.

The SEC on Dec. 12 said it had authorized charges against Bankman-Fried relating to violations of securities laws.

Separately, U.S. prosecutor Damian Williams said he expected to move to unseal an indictment against Bankman-Fried on Dec. 13.

EUROPE/CYPRUS

Cyprus’s Securities and Exchange Commission asked FTX EU to suspend its operations on Nov. 9.

FTX announced in September it had received approval from the Cypriot regulator to operate as a Cyprus Investment Firm, allowing the company to fully own a local investment firm it had previously acquired.

This allowed FTX EU to serve the European Economic Area.

(Reporting by Alun John; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Sam Holmes)

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Bankman-Fried says lawyers pressured him to name new CEO -testimony

(Reuters) – FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried said he was pressured into nominating John Ray as chief executive of the crypto exchange in early November by Sullivan and Cromwell lawyers who were advising his firm at the time, according to a draft of his testimony to Congress seen by Reuters.

Shortly after Bankman-Fried agreed to nominate Ray, he received a “potential funding offer for billions of dollars to help make customers whole,” Bankman-Fried wrote. But by then he was told it was too late to rescind the move.

Bankman-Fried, who was arrested earlier on Monday in the Bahamas, could not be reached for comment. Sullivan and Cromwell, FTX and John Ray were not immediately available for comment.

(Reporting by Angus Berwick; Writing by Paritosh Bansal; Editing by Tom Hogue)

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FTX CEO to detail “unacceptable management practices” in congressional testimony

(Reuters) – FTX CEO John Ray will tell lawmakers on Tuesday that the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange had “unacceptable management practices” including the commingling of assets and lack of internal controls, according to prepared remarks published by the U.S. House Financial Services Committee.

FTX filed for U.S. bankruptcy protection last month and its founder Sam Bankman-Fried resigned as chief executive. Both Ray and Bankman-Fried will testify before the committee on Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET (1500 GMT).

Ray in his prepared remarks said that the FTX collapse appeared to stem from the concentration of control “in the hands of a very small group of grossly inexperienced and unsophisticated individuals.”

(Reporting by Hannah Lang in Washington)

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Gold is better portfolio diversifier than bitcoin -Goldman Sachs

(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs expects gold, with its real demand drivers, to outperform the highly volatile bitcoin in the long term, the bank wrote in a Monday research note.

Gold is less likely to be influenced by tighter financial conditions, meaning it is “a useful portfolio diversifier,” said Goldman, especially given that gold has developed non-speculative use cases while bitcoin is still looking for one.

Goldman’s analysis showed that while traders use gold to hedge against inflation and dollar debasement, bitcoin resembles a “risk-on high-growth tech company stock.”

The value proposition of bitcoin, which the bank called “a solution looking for a problem,” comes from the scope of its future real use cases, making it a more volatile and speculative asset than the precious metal.

Although investors’ willingness to explore the decentralized currency aided bitcoin adoption, the bank forecast financial conditions will become tighter.

“Bitcoin’s volatility to the downside was also enhanced by systemic concerns as several large players filed for bankruptcy,” it noted, citing the collapse of the FTX exchange and the 3AC hedge fund.

While net speculative positions in both the assets fell sharply over the last year, gold is marginally up year-on-year against bitcoin’s plunge by 75%, the bank noted.

“Tighter liquidity should be a smaller drag on gold, which is more exposed to real demand drivers” like Asian consumer buying, central bank monetary demand, safe-haven investments, and industrial applications, it said.

“Moreover, gold may benefit from structurally higher macro volatility and a need to diversify equity exposure.”

(Reporting by Deep Vakil in Bengaluru; Editing by Josie Kao)

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Exclusive-U.S. Justice Dept is split over charging Binance as crypto world falters – sources

By Angus Berwick, Dan Levine and Tom Wilson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Splits between U.S. Department of Justice prosecutors are delaying the conclusion of a long-running criminal investigation into the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance, four people familiar with the matter have told Reuters.

The investigation began in 2018 and is focused on Binance’s compliance with U.S. anti-money laundering laws and sanctions, these people said. Some of the at least half dozen federal prosecutors involved in the case believe the evidence already gathered justifies moving aggressively against the exchange and filing criminal charges against individual executives including founder Changpeng Zhao, said two of the sources. Others have argued taking time to review more evidence, the sources said.

The inquiry involves prosecutors at three Justice Department offices: the Money Laundering and Asset Recovery Section, known as MLARS, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Western District of Washington in Seattle and the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team. Justice Department regulations say that money laundering charges against a financial institution must be approved by the MLARS chief. Leaders from the other two offices, along with higher-level DOJ officials, would likely also have to sign off on any action against Binance, three of the sources said.

Through interviews with almost a dozen people familiar with the case, including current and former U.S. law enforcement officials and ex-Binance advisors, along with a review of company records, Reuters has pieced together the most comprehensive account so far of how the investigation developed and how Binance has sought to keep it at bay. Prosecutors’ deliberations on charging Binance have not been previously reported.

The stakes are high for the deeply troubled crypto sector. If the investigation goes against Binance and Zhao, it could loosen Binance’s grip on the industry. Its hold has been strengthened by the recent collapse of rival exchange FTX.

Binance’s defense attorneys at U.S. law firm Gibson Dunn have held meetings in recent months with Justice Department officials, the four people said. Among Binance’s arguments: A criminal prosecution would wreak havoc on a crypto market already in a prolonged downturn. The discussions included potential plea deals, according to three of the sources.

A Binance spokesperson said, “We don’t have any insight into the inner workings of the US Justice Department, nor would it be appropriate for us to comment if we did.” The Justice Department declined to comment.

The charges under investigation are unlicensed money transmission, money laundering conspiracy and criminal sanctions violations, the four people said. No final charging decisions have been made, though prosecutors consider Zhao and some other executives to be subjects of the investigation, one source familiar with the situation said. Ultimately, the Justice Department could bring indictments against Binance and its executives, negotiate a settlement, or close the case without taking any action at all.

Little has been revealed about the case. Reuters reported previously that in 2020, prosecutors requested extensive internal records from Binance about its anti-money laundering checks, along with communications involving Zhao and other executives.

The new reporting shows that the case has shadowed Binance for most of its five years in existence, shaping Zhao’s management of the company while he drove its explosive growth around the world. He instigated a recruitment spree last year that led to the hiring of officials from the Internal Revenue Service’s Criminal Investigation division, the U.S. government agency that was investigating Binance. He enforced strict secrecy rules on employees, telling them to use email as little as possible and to communicate using encrypted messaging services, according to company messages that Reuters has previously reported.

Reuters has investigated Binance’s financial crime compliance over the course of 2022. The reporting showed that Binance kept weak anti-money laundering controls, processed over $10 billion in payments for criminals and companies seeking to evade U.S. sanctions, and plotted to evade regulators in the United States and elsewhere.

Binance has disputed the articles, calling the illicit-fund calculations inaccurate and the descriptions of its compliance controls “outdated.” The exchange has said it is “driving higher industry standards” and seeking to “further improve our ability to detect illegal crypto activity on our platform.”

Launched by Zhao in Shanghai in 2017, Binance now dominates the crypto industry. The exchange processed trades worth around $1.6 trillion in October, about half of the entire crypto market’s trading volume. That sum dwarfed its former challenger FTX, which handled $230 billion in trades that month, according to data site CryptoCompare.

FTX imploded in early November, triggering a wave of public demands for greater regulation of the cryptocurrency industry. Founder Sam Bankman-Fried had boasted his exchange was the “most regulated,” but he based it in the Bahamas, where oversight was light, and secretly used customer deposits. The Justice Department has opened an investigation into FTX’s handling of company funds, Reuters has reported. In a bankruptcy hearing, attorneys for FTX said the exchange was run as a “personal fiefdom” of Bankman-Fried. Bankman-Fried says he didn’t knowingly commit any wrongdoing.

Sources familiar with Justice Department operations said it is as yet unclear whether this new probe will add impetus to the investigation into Binance or slow it down.

Zhao, who declines to disclose the location or entity behind his own exchange, accelerated his rival’s fall by announcing that Binance would sell its holding of FTX’s digital token. This sparked a surge of user withdrawals, ultimately forcing FTX to file for bankruptcy.

In a blog post several days later, Zhao wrote that Binance “must lead by example” going forward. “We cannot let a few bad actors sully the reputation of this industry,” he wrote.

“LAWYER UP”

Prosecutors in the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Seattle began investigating Binance in 2018, following a wave of cases that saw criminals use Binance to move illicit funds, the four people familiar with the probe said.

The Seattle office partnered with MLARS to pursue the case, along with agents from the IRS Criminal Investigation division.

Binance began to address the chances of U.S. enforcement action that year. A summary of a company meeting in October 2018, attended by Zhao, said, “Lawyer up in the US, address regulatory risks.”

The U.S. Bank Secrecy Act, designed to protect the U.S. financial system from illicit finance, requires crypto exchanges to register with the Treasury Department and comply with anti-money laundering requirements if they conduct “substantial” business in the United States. Binance has never done so, despite almost a third of its users being U.S.-based the year of its launch, according to a company blog post.

Instead, Zhao approved a proposal from a person providing advice to Binance to “insulate” Binance from U.S. scrutiny by setting up a new American exchange that would draw regulators’ attention away from the main platform, as reported by Reuters in October. Zhao became concerned about U.S. authorities gaining access to Binance’s internal records, company messages show.

A guide issued to employees for one encrypted messaging service listed its “automatic self-erasing messages” as a benefit.

Until 2020, Binance’s legal department operated on bare bones. Its head of legal, Jared Gross, was a former mergers and acquisitions lawyer with little experience in dealing with authorities, according to two people who worked with him. Faced with the Justice Department investigation, Binance hired an external lawyer from U.S. law firm Paul Weiss, Roberto Gonzalez, who was previously Treasury’s deputy general counsel. Gross, who left Binance last year, did not respond to messages and phone calls. Gonzalez and Paul Weiss didn’t comment.

In December 2020, two MLARS attorneys and a Seattle prosecutor sent the DOJ’s request for documents to Binance, addressed to Gonzalez. The letter sought any records containing instructions that “documents be destroyed, altered, or removed from Binance’s files” or that “information should not be committed to writing.” The request asked for communications involving Zhao and 12 other Binance executives and advisors.

Several days later, an advisor to one of the people named in the letter received a panicked phone call from this person. The caller told the advisor that Binance was struggling to respond to the DOJ because many of the records relevant to the Department’s request had already been erased due to Zhao’s secrecy rules. This extended, the person told the advisor, to Zhao’s approvals for financial decisions at Binance.US, the separate American exchange which publicly says it is “fully independent” of the main Binance platform.

A Binance.US spokesperson said Reuters’ questions were “fueled with false insinuations,” and Binance.US was a separate entity with its own leadership team who are “solely responsible for overseeing decisions and activity across the business.”

Text messages and phone records reviewed by Reuters confirm the call took place and that it concerned the Department’s December 2020 letter. The advisor described the contents of the call on the condition that Reuters not identify the advisor or the caller.

Reuters, which was the first to disclose the request publicly, could not determine how Binance ultimately responded to the DOJ letter.

NEW TASKFORCE

The following year, Binance began a recruitment blitz. It hired at least five ex-officials from the IRS Criminal Investigation’s Cyber Crime Unit, including a new global head of investigations called Tigran Gambaryan. Binance said Gambaryan’s team would detect and prevent crimes on the platform and work closely with law enforcement.

As an IRS-CI special agent, Gambaryan had helped lead investigations into several notorious crypto crime operations, such as the Silk Road darknet drugs marketplace and a child abuse site called Dark Scandals, whose operations Reuters detailed in an article last month. Gambaryan was not involved in the Binance investigation at IRS-CI, but was close to agents that were, according to two people who worked with him.

His hiring was part of a recruitment program by Binance among law enforcement officials in the United States, offering salaries that far exceeded what was available at many other finance and crypto firms, according to four people familiar with the outreach.

Gambaryan didn’t respond to a request for comment. Binance told Reuters, “We are proud to have in our ranks some of the most celebrated cyber investigators representing virtually every single major international law enforcement agency across the globe.” Binance said they have around 300 investigators working “to protect users from illicit actors.”

In August 2021, Binance ended a policy that allowed users to open accounts with solely an email address. Reuters has reported previously that criminals ranging from Russian drug traffickers to North Korean hackers had exploited this feature to move money anonymously through Binance.

But even after Binance required all users to submit identification, gaps remained in its compliance programme. For example, between then and this November, Binance processed over $1 billion in trades for Iranian crypto firms, putting the company at risk of violating U.S sanctions, Reuters reported last month.

In October 2021, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco announced the creation of a National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team (NCET) to tackle investigations of “criminal misuses of cryptocurrency, particularly crimes committed by virtual currency exchanges.” Monaco, in a separate speech that month, said the Justice Department’s “first priority in corporate criminal matters” was to prosecute individuals who profit from corporate wrongdoing.

The Justice Department appointed Eun Young Choi, previously Monaco’s senior counsel, as NCET’s first director. Under Choi, NCET began coordinating the Binance investigation, joining the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Seattle and MLARS, according to the four people familiar with the case. Agents gathered evidence from former Binance employees and business partners, they said.

In recent months, prosecutors at NCET and the Seattle office concluded they had sufficient evidence to prepare charges not only against Binance, but also against Zhao and some other executives, the people said. However, MLARS leadership has been hesitant to move forward with an indictment, leading to frustrations within the investigation team, the people said.

MLARS has a reputation in the Justice Department for moving slowly in reaching prosecution decisions, people familiar with its activities said. In October, however, the Department appointed a new MLARS chief, Brent Wible, who previously worked in the Fraud Section and before that as a prosecutor in the Southern District of New York. Both of those offices are known, among current and former law enforcement officials, for pursuing cases more aggressively.

Binance has hired a former chief of MLARS, Kendall Day, a partner at Gibson Dunn, to engage in discussions with the Justice Department. Day met with Justice officials in Washington in recent months, three of the people said. Officials discussed with Day a possible resolution to the case out of court, whereby suspects would potentially plead guilty or pay a fine, the three sources said. Day didn’t comment.

((reporting by Angus Berwick in Washington, Dan Levine in San Francisco and Tom Wilson in London; editing by Janet McBride))

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FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried says he will testify remotely at upcoming congressional hearing

(Reuters) – Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and former CEO of now-bankrupt crypto exchange FTX, said on Monday he would testify remotely at Tuesday’s U.S. House Finanical Services Committee hearing to examine the collapse of the company.

In a Twitter Spaces event held on Monday with Twitter account Unusual Whales, Bankman-Fried said he would be “calling in” to the hearing.

A spokesperson for Bankman-Fried confirmed that he would not be testifying at the hearing in person. FTX CEO John Ray will also appear before the committee, although it is not yet clear if he will testify virtually or in person.

(Reporting by Hannah Lang in Washington; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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Crypto winter end in sight as Ethereum looks to shake the chills- analysts

(Reuters) – Most big banks and investment managers expect the cryptocurrency market to pick up in 2023 after a brutal year that saw bitcoin sink around 75% from its all-time high in November last year.

The collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX – the latest in a series of liquidity squeezes and bankruptcy filings that have shaken investors – has underscored the need for more regulations in the highly speculative sector.

Ethereum and projects focused on real world functionalities and utility are expected to drive the next leg of growth.

While bitcoin may still test a potential low of $10,000-$12,000, it could recover to $30,000 in the second half of 2023, according to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research. Bitcoin had hit an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.

Following are some comments from banks and investment managers:

MARION LABOURE, RESEARCH ANALYST, DEUTSCHE BANK:

“Although investors have suffered significant losses, we believe this second ‘crypto winter’ will be a net positive because the FTX collapse will edge the crypto ecosystem closer to the established financial sector.”

“The FTX crash spotlighted well-known structural issues in the crypto ecosystem: insufficient reserves, conflict of interest, a lack of regulation and transparency, and unreliable data.”

“Market concentration (in crypto exchanges) is greater than ever, with Binance being the biggest winner.”

“Crypto does not yet pose a systemic contagion threat to traditional assets.”

J.P.MORGAN:

“We believe that the Ethereum Merge and really the Ethereum Surge could be a big factor in terms of increasing the use-cases for blockchain into new areas, including financial services,” analysts said in an early December note.

The Ethereum Merge was a major software upgrade to the Ethereum blockchain that went live in September and reduced its energy usage by 99.95%, according to developers. The Surge, another anticipated upgrade, is seen reducing costs to make the ethereum network safer and process transactions faster.

“We continue to see the Ethereum Surge as a catalyst for development in the cryptocurrency markets, which appears at least 6-12 months away.”

BOFA:

“An increased urgency for regulation may enable greater institutional engagement, and a shift in focus and capital from speculative trading to projects with real-world functionality, and companies with roadmaps to profitability may accelerate industry maturity,” analysts said in a note.

“Our view is that we remain in the first innings of a major change in applications that will take place over the next 30 years.”

GOLDMAN SACHS:

“While the FTX crisis appears to be peaking, asymmetrical responses of mining to prices may weaken the market headwind: now less sensitive to the downside while more to the upside,” economists said in a note.

“From the China crackdown to the several price crashes in earlier 2022, crypto mining has shown an approximately 1-to-1 price-power relationship. Along with the Ethereum Merge, this elasticity tends to shrink on the negative side while expanding on the positive side: most recently, the 6% price rebound in early-September was followed by a 19% Bitcoin power demand rebound in early-October (more than 1-to-3).”

“Still too short history to verify the change, but we could see the possibility of some immunity to the current price crash in the middle of the FTX crisis and to potential stricter scrutiny from regulators in the coming months.”

UBS:

“BTC and ETH futures volumes and open interest … now seem to be stabilizing. This coincides with implied volatilities falling back in line with realized,” strategists said a note.

“Normalization is evident from the fact that outflows from centralised exchanges have eased. And the wrapped bitcoin (wBTC) discount has largely reverted after widening to as much as 1.5%.”

As with most other banks, UBS is pessimistic regarding the near-term future.

“Regulation looms to the extent that we don’t see any near-term positive catalyst for a strong recovery.”

MATTHEW SIGEL, HEAD OF DIGITAL ASSETS RESEARCH, VANECK:

“With bitcoin mining largely unprofitable given recent higher electricity prices and lower Bitcoin prices, we predict that many miners will restructure or merge as they look for fresh capital.”

They added that an end to the war in Ukraine might reverse some of the policies aimed at curbing inflation and make Bitcoin mining more politically palatable.

“Institutions will employ blockchains to simplify custody and settlement, while reducing costs for customers.”

“Our predicted winners are Ethereum, Polygon, Avalanche, Polkadot and Cosmos.”

“With persistent inflation and a young population, Latin America is seeing the fastest crypto and stablecoin adoption in the world. Tokenization of sovereign debt may begin in Brazil first.”

“Twitter will bolster its payment offerings with state money licenses, competing more directly with Venmo & Cash App and possibly integrating crypto.”

ERIC ROBERTSEN, GLOBAL HEAD OF RESEARCH, STANDARD CHARTERED:

In their “surprise” scenario for 2023, Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin falling to $5,000 if the current collapse spreads.

TOM NORWOOD, CO-FOUNDER AND CEO, LOOP MARKETS:

“Demand for bitcoin should continue to grow regardless of market conditions as it is still better than most currencies in that it at least has a good chance of going up eventually, whereas most currencies are just going to depreciate over time.”

Norwood expects the crypto market to pick up in about six months.

“I think that’s going to have to come from real world adoption by retail users who are not buying crypto to gamble on new tokens, but rather who need to exit their local Fiat currency.”

(Reporting by Susan Mathew and Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty)

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FTX secretly funded crypto news site – Axios

(Reuters) – Cryptocurrency exchange FTX secretly funded media company the Block for over a year with money sent to the Block’s chief executive, Axios reported on Friday, citing sources.

The Block’s employees were previously unaware of the payments, according to the report.

FTX did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment, while FTX’s former Chief Executive Sam Bankman-Fried did not respond to a phone call and text message seeking comment.

Regulators around the globe, including in the Bahamas where FTX is based and in the United States, are investigating the role of FTX’s top executives in the firm’s stunning collapse, Reuters previously reported.

The crypto exchange filed for bankruptcy last month after a liquidity crisis that saw at least $1 billion of customer funds vanish.

(Reporting by Anirban Chakroborti in Bengaluru and John McCrank in New York; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta)

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U.S. Supreme Court agrees to hear Coinbase arbitration dispute

(Reuters) – The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday agreed to hear Coinbase Global Inc’s bid to halt two lawsuits the company contends belong in private arbitration by customers who accused the cryptocurrency exchange of failing to protect their funds from theft and deceptively marketing a Dogecoin sweepstakes.

The justices took up Coinbase’s appeal of lower-court rulings rejecting the company’s request to have the two proposed class actions put on hold at the trial court level while it appeals decisions by judges to not force the customers to arbitrate their claims.

(Reporting by Nate Raymond in Boston; Editing by Mark Porter)

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FTX founder Bankman-Fried ‘willing to testify’ before U.S. House panel – tweet

(Reuters) – FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried is willing to testify before the U.S. House Committee on Dec. 13, the cryptocurrency exchange’s founder said in a tweet on Friday, as regulators investigate his role in the wake of its collapse.

A day earlier, House Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters told Reuters that she is prepared to subpoena Bankman-Fried if he does not agree to appear before the panel.

“I still do not have access to much of my data — professional or personal. So there is a limit to what I will be able to say, and I won’t be as helpful as I’d like,” Bankman-Fried said on Friday.

“But as the committee still thinks it would be useful, I am willing to testify on the 13th,” he added.

It was not clear if he plans to be at the hearing in person or through a video feed.

In recent weeks, U.S. authorities have sought information from investors and potential investors in FTX, two sources with knowledge of the requests told Reuters. Prosecutors and regulators have not charged Bankman-Fried with any crime.

BATTLING CRYPTO PIONEERS

FTX filed for bankruptcy last month and Bankman-Fried stepped down as chief executive, after traders pulled $6 billion from the platform in three days and rival exchange Binance abandoned a rescue deal.

Reuters detailed last month the bitter rivalry between Bankman-Fried and Binance Chief Executive Changpeng Zhao, who had in the months before FTX’s downfall competed for market share.

Public tension between the two erupted again on Friday after a string of tweets by Zhao.

Zhao said after Binance – an early investor in FTX – sought to exit its stake over one-and-a-half years ago, Bankman-Fried made “offensive tirades” against Binance team members.

Binance sold back to FTX its stake in the company last year.

In reply, Bankman-Fried wrote: “We initiated conversations around buying you out, and we decided to do it because it was important for our business.”

“You threatened to walk at the last minute if we didn’t kick in an extra ~$75m,” he added. “You didn’t even have the rights to pull out as an investor unless we chose to buy you out–much of the tokens/equity were still locked.”

“Not that it matters now. You also can’t force us to sell if we don’t want to,” Zhao replied.

“It was never a competition or fight. No one won.”

(Reporting by Mehnaz Yasmin in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Sriraj Kalluvila)

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UK’s Hunt: finance reforms won’t repeat pre-2008 mistakes

LONDON (Reuters) – British finance minister Jeremy Hunt said the financial services reforms he announced on Friday would not lead to a repeat of the regulatory errors that contributed to the 2008 global financial crisis.

“It is perfectly sensible to make pragmatic changes such as the ones that we’re announcing today,” he said at an event hosted by the Financial Times.

“But we’re doing so very, very carefully to make sure that the UK is a competitive, exciting place to be and to invest, but also that we don’t lose the guard rails that we put in place after 2008.”

(Reporting by William James, writing by David Milliken, Editing by Kylie MacLellan)

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Britain reforms finance to exploit Brexit and ‘turbocharge’ growth

By Huw Jones

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain set out 30 measures to overhaul the financial sector on Friday, including a repeal of ‘burdensome’ EU rules the government says will unlock investment and maintain the City of London as one of the most competitive financial hubs in the world.

The planned reforms also include a review of rules put in place following the financial crisis over a decade ago to make bankers accountable for their decisions and easing capital requirements for smaller lenders, after much lobbying by banks.

The City has been largely cut off from the European Union by Brexit, putting pressure on the government to ease rules as Amsterdam overtook London to become Europe’s top share trading centre, adding to competition from New York and Singapore.

Leaving the European Union allows Britain to write its own rules, but as it hosts scores of international banks, it has little room to diverge radically from international norms.

“The government’s approach to reforming the financial services regulatory landscape recognises and protects the foundations on which the UK’s success as a financial services hub is built: agility, consistently high regulatory standards, and openness,” the finance ministry said in a statement.

UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt will formally set out the plans at a meeting with financial sector officials in Edinburgh.

Now dubbed the “Edinburgh Reforms”, the proposed reset had been trailed as “Big Bang 2.0”, a reference to the 1980s share trading overhaul, raising expectations of a big deregulatory push which left banks fearing costly systems changes.

But the emphasis has shifted to reviewing and tweaking rules while remaining aligned with global standards, rather than any wholesale dismantling of regulations.

The batch of planned reforms include a review of securitisation and short-selling rules, overhauling prospectuses issued by companies when they list, and a plan for repealing and reforming rules that were introduced when Britain was in the EU.

Other plans include a consultation in coming weeks on a central bank digital currency, a project that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was keen on as finance minister.

There will also be a consultation on regulating compilers of ratings on company’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) impacts.

“It is important for people not to overplay this – there is no sense of any move back to a pre-financial crisis world,” said Jonathan Herbst, a lawyer at Norton Rose Fulbright.

The EU is updating its own financial rules to reduce remaining reliance on London, and is ahead in areas like cryptoassets.

ACCOUNTABILITY

The reforms target two sets of rules introduced by Britain in the aftermath of the financial crisis over a decade ago when the government had to bail out undercapitalised banks while few individual bankers were punished.

The first set, known as the senior managers’ and certification regime (SMCR), requires banks and insurers to name individuals responsible for specific activities, making it easier for regulators to punish them when things go wrong.

Bankers have complained that regulators take too long to vet these senior appointments.

The second set of rules requires banks to “ring fence” their retail arms with a cushion of capital to insulate deposits from a blow up in riskier activities, such as trading derivatives.

The ring-fencing regime will be reformed to free retail focused banks and ease “unnecessary regulatory burdens on firms while maintaining protections for depositors”.

Banks have lobbied to either scrap the rule or significantly raise the deposits threshold which triggers the requirement. The changes are likely to ease burdens on smaller banks to help Britain’s longstanding attempts to increase competition in a sector dominated by HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds and NatWest.

Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods said in 2020 that he would defend the ring-fencing rules to his “last drop of blood”. The BoE said on Friday it would work with the ministry to ensure a safe and competitive financial system.

The ministry will also review EU-era stock and bond trading requirements known as MiFID II, in particular a rule requiring brokers to itemise or “unbundle” their customer charges for research on stock picks and for executing stock orders.

Britain had already set out initial reforms in its financial services and markets bill being approved in parliament. It includes giving regulators an extra objective of paying heed to the City’s global competitiveness when writing rules.

Sophie Lund-Yates, Lead Equity Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said London’s financial centre has been severely held back since Brexit. “Sadly, the allure simply isn’t there, with many of the UK’s brightest companies being snapped up by overseas investors, and London losing its top share-dealing status,” she said.

Other reforms already announced include scrapping a cap on banker bonuses and easing capital rules for insurers. A public consultation on regulating crypto assets has also been flagged.

(Reporting by Huw Jones, writing by William James; Editing by Kate Holton and Elaine Hardcastle)

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Euro zone banks must keep down stock of bad loans in downturn, ECB says

NICOSIA (Reuters) – Euro zone banks are relatively healthy at the start of the economic downturn and a key priority will be to keep down the stock of soured loans, European Central Bank supervisory chief Andrea Enria said on Friday.

Enria added that supervisors must stay alert to the potential systemic risk from crypto assets and there was a growing need for a global regulatory framework.

(Reporting by Michele Kambas; writing by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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Factbox: UK sets out financial sector reforms

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain on Friday set out plans to overhaul the financial sector including a review of rules to make bankers accountable for their decisions and easing capital requirements on smaller lenders.

Here are some of the measures announced:

– Reforming the Ring-Fencing Regime for Banks

– Issuing new remit letters for the PRA and FCA with clear, targeted recommendations on growth and international competitiveness

– Reforming securitisation regulation

– Launching a Call for Evidence on reforming the Short Selling Regulation

– Welcoming the PRA consultation on removing rules for the capital deduction of certain non-performing exposures held by banks

– Overhauling the UK’s regulation of prospectuses

– Committing to establish the independent Investment Research Review

– Committing to having a regime for a UK consolidated tape in place by 2024

– Consulting on reform to the VAT treatment of fund management

– Consulting in Q1 2023 on bringing Environmental, Social, and Governance ratings providers into the regulatory perimeter

– Consulting on a UK retail central bank digital currency alongside the Bank of England in the coming weeks

– Publishing a response to the consultation on expanding the Investment Manager Exemption to include cryptoassets

– Laying regulations in early 2023 to remove well-designed performance fees from the pensions regulatory charge cap

(Reporting by William James)

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Australia charges four Chinese nationals over U.S.-based scam

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australian police charged four Chinese nationals on Friday over an online investment scam based mainly in the United States, which authorities said caused losses of more than $100 million across the world.

The sophisticated scam involved the manipulation of legitimate electronic trading platforms licensed to foreign exchange brokers, who then provided the software to their clients, the Australian Federal Police (AFP) said.

The United States Secret Service in August notified authorities about the Australian links to the predominantly U.S.-based scam, AFP said. The accused were residents of Sydney but most victims were based in the United States. Investigations into potential Australian victims were ongoing.

The organised crime syndicate employed a mix of social engineering techniques, including messaging platforms and dating and job websites, to gain victims’ trust before mentioning investment opportunities.

The victims were directed to both fraudulent and legitimate investment applications that dealt in foreign exchange and cryptocurrency, which were manipulated to show a false positive return on investments.

After victims became subscribers to an investment service, data was changed to encourage further investment, while concealing the fact their money had been stolen.

AFP Detective Sergeant Salam Zreika said in a statement the case highlighted the need to “refrain from investing in foreign exchange, crypto-currency or speculative investments with people you’ve only ever encountered in the online environment”.

The four arrested men registered Australian companies to make their scams look genuine, and created Australian business bank accounts to launder the proceeds, police alleged.

(Reporting by Renju Jose; Editing by Stephen Coates)

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U.S. SEC advises public companies on disclosing crypto impacts

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. securities regulator on Thursday warned public companies to examine whether they need to disclose to investors any potential impacts from recent market volatility and bankruptcies in the cryptocurrency industry.

In guidance to public companies, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) detailed information that businesses may be required to share with their investors, including whether the firms have any financially material exposures to counterparties that have filed for bankruptcy or become insolvent.

Public companies are already required by law to disclose financially material information to investors, but the SEC frequently issues guidance to firms about how they should address exposure to major events.

Thursday’s guidance comes after months of turmoil in crypto markets and the recent collapse of major crypto firms FTX and BlockFi Inc.

(Reporting by Chris Prentice in Washington; Editing by Matthew Lewis)

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U.S. House panel chair says she’ll subpoena FTX’s Bankman-Fried if needed

By David Morgan

(Reuters) – House Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters told Reuters on Thursday that she is prepared to subpoena FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, if he does not agree to appear before the panel next week, and she is working out the best way to do it.

“We’ve made it clear that we want Sam at our hearing on Dec. 13. If he does not cooperate, then we are prepared to subpoena,” Waters said in an interview in the U.S. Capitol.

Regulators around the globe, including in the Bahamas where FTX is based and in the United States, are investigating the role of FTX’s top executives including Bankman-Fried in the firm’s stunning collapse, Reuters has previously reported. The crypto exchange filed for bankruptcy last month after a liquidity crisis that saw at least $1 billion of customer funds vanish.

Prosecutors and regulators have not charged Bankman-Fried with any crime.

Waters said she has the authority to issue a subpoena herself but could put it to a committee vote, adding she would first work out the procedure with Representative Patrick McHenry, the Republican lawmaker who will chair the panel when his party assumes control of the House in January. She said no decision has been made so far. “I could really do it myself. We’d probably do a vote,” she said. “I have to work it out with Mr. McHenry how we do it. But we will issue a subpoena.”

“Either he participates or not. And that’s when we make our decision,” Waters said. “It’s only proper and right, and makes good sense, to say we want you here.”

She declined to say whether Bankman-Fried would be required to appear in person or could testify by video link.

A spokesperson for Bankman-Fried declined to comment. McHenry’s office was not immediately available for comment.

(Reporting by David Morgan; Additional reporting by Chris Prentice; Editing by Megan Davies and Daniel Wallis)