NEM’s XEM Technical Analysis – Eyeing Resistance Levels – 13/11/18

nem

Key Highlights

  • NEM’s XEM rallied by 20.41% on Monday, following a 0.55% fall on Sunday, to end the day at $0.11243.
  • A mid-morning intraday low $0.09203 called on support at the first major support level at $0.092 ahead of a late morning rally.
  • The late morning rally saw NEM’s XEM break through the day’s major resistance levels, with NEM’s XEM holding onto $0.11 levels by the day’s end.
  • The extended bearish trend formed at late April’s swing hi $0.46546 remained intact, with NEM’s XEM continuing to fall well short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.1695.

How to Buy NEM’s XEM

 

NEM’s XEM Price Support

NEM’s XEM jumped by 20.41% on Monday, following a 0.55% decline on Sunday, to end the day at $0.11243.

A range bound start to the day saw NEM’s XEM ease back to a mid-morning intraday low $0.09203, calling on support at the day’s first major support level of $0.092 before a late morning rally kicked in, driven by news of NEM’s XEM being reinstated for trading on Coincheck.

The late morning rally saw NEM’s XEM break through the day’s major resistance levels to strike a late morning intraday high $0.1166 before easing back to a range bound afternoon, with sub-$0.11 support levels holding back NEM’s XEM from a more material reversal later in the day.

In spite of the day’s rally, the extended bearish trend remained firmly intact, with NEM’s XEM continuing to fall well short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.1695.

At the time of writing, NEM’s XEM was up 5.48% to $0.11859, with NEM’s XEM rallying from a start of a day dip to a morning low $0.10743 to a morning high $0.12066, the early move seeing NEM’s XEM come within range of the first major resistance level at $0.1220 before easing back.

For the day ahead, a move back through to $0.12 levels would support another run at the first major resistance level at $0.1220, with $0.13 levels and the second major resistance level at $0.1316 in play should momentum continue to side with NEM’s XEM, though we can expect some profit taking later in the day to see NEM’s XEM face plenty of resistance on any run at $0.13 levels.

Failure to move back through to $0.12 levels and hold through to the early afternoon could see NEM’s XEM hit reverse later in the day, with a fall through the morning low $0.10743 bringing sub-$0.10 levels and the day’s first major support level at $0.0974 into play, though sentiment will need to materially deteriorate for sub-$0.10 support levels to come into play.

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Looking at the Technical Indicators

  • Major Support Level: $0.0974
  • Major Resistance Level: $0.1070
  • Fib 23.6% Retracement Level: $0.1695
  • Fib 38% Retracement Level: $0.226
  • Fib 62% Retracement Level: $0.3174

Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Forecast – Crypto Investors On Cautious Stance Over SEC’s Regulatory Pursuit

Bitcoin was bullish for the majority of last week, hitting new monthly high’s on optimism for more institutional investments, but it returned some of its recent gains on regulatory jitters. The SEC reportedly ended its public comment period on Bitcoin ETF applications, which suggests that a decision could be announced anytime now. However, BTCUSD pair lost all its gains and closed in red last week as traders moved funds from exchanges to wallets, as pre-cautionary efforts while regulators crack down on decentralized exchanges such as EtherDelta. The BTCUSD pair is still maintaining its consolidative move with price action well inside the highs and lows of last 2 weeks.  As of writing this article, BTCUSD pair is trading at $6401.9 up by 0.17% on the day.

News of South Korean Exit Scam Put A Dent in Bullish Investor Sentiment

Bitcoin price declined recently below the $6,300 support before correcting higher against the US Dollar. Analysts are of opinion that BTCUSD pair could be in for a recovery rally as the pair defended a key support level over the weekend. As risk sentiment took a dovish turn today owing to concerns of the global economic slowdown, fund flow changed direction from equity markets and risky assets. While most traders preferred US Greenback, there was some level of activity in crypto markets as some investors chose to funnel funds into major crypto instruments such as BTCUSD. However, the gain in major instruments was limited owing to news of another exit scam in South Korea.

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While the crypto market is already seeing limited fund flow owing to SEC’s crackdown of unregulated brokers, news hit the market that South Korean blockchain company Pure Bit has reportedly stolen $2.7 million worth of investors’ money after raising 13,000 Ethereum in an ICO. According to The Next Web, hours after moving all raised funds out of its wallet, the company shut down its website, deleted its social media accounts and kicked all users off its chat group. Over the past two years, exit scammers have stolen more than $100 million worth of cryptocurrency. Overall price action in the crypto market today was range bound with slight bullish bias. ETHUSD pair is trading at 212.30 up by 0.64% on the day.

Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 13/11/18

Bitcoin Cash Sees More Red

Bitcoin Cash fell by 2.78% on Monday, following on from a 4.1% slide on Sunday, to end the day at $520.6.

A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin Cash slide to a late morning intraday low $504.7, Bitcoin Cash sliding through the first major support level at $516.33 to find support at $500 and avoid testing the second major support level at $497.17.

Recovering to an early afternoon Bitcoin Cash intraday high $544 that fell short of the first major resistance level at $556.53 was as good as it got, with Bitcoin Cash easing back through the rest of the day to $520 levels, the moves driven by the news wires, as the hard fork rapidly approaches.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 1.18%, with Bitcoin Cash falling to an early morning low $508.5 before recovering, the day’s major support and resistance levels left untested early on.

For the day ahead, a move through the morning high $522 to $525 levels would support a run at the first major resistance level at $541.5, though much will depend on the news wires through the day, the hash rates of Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV key for direction, Bitcoin ABC positive news likely to bring the day’s second major resistance level at $562.4 into play.

Failure to move back through the morning high could see Bitcoin Cash take a bigger hit later in the day, support for Bitcoin SV likely to lead to a pullback through the morning low to call on support at the first major support level at $502.2, sub-$500 levels in play should hard fork jitters build.

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Litecoin Holds onto the $50s

Litecoin fell by 0.93% on Monday, following on from a 2.04% fall on Sunday, to end the day at $50.33.

A start of a day intraday high $51.34 came up short of the first major resistance level at $52.03, with a slide to a morning low $50.02 seeing Litecoin hold above the first major support level at $49.54. Following an early afternoon recovery, a late in the day intraday low $50 also avoided the major support levels on the day.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down 0.38% to $50.14, with Litecoin falling through the first major support level at $49.77 to a morning low $49.52 before recovering to $50 levels.

For the day ahead, a move back through a start of a day high $50.33 to $50.6 would support a run at the first major resistance level at $51.11, though sentiment across the broader market will have an influence on the day, the second major resistance level at $51.9 unlikely to be tested barring particularly positive news hitting the wires.

Failure to move back through the morning high could see Litecoin decline further later in the day, a pullback through the first major support level to the morning low $49.52 bringing the second major support level at $49.22 into play before any recovery, sub-$49 support levels unlikely to be tested on the day.

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Ripple Bucks the Trend

Ripple’s XRP gained 2.77% on Monday, following a 0.15% rise on Sunday, to end the day at $0.52403.

A relatively range bound start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP ease to a late morning intraday low $0.50519 before steadying, the morning low holding above the first major support level at $0.5012.

An early afternoon rally saw Ripple’s XRP break through the first major resistance level at $0.5155 and second major resistance level at $0.5210 to come up against the third major resistance level at $0.5353 before easing back, with Ripple’s XRP unable to hold above the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $0.5225 by the day’s end.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up 0.64% to $0.52738, Ripple’s XRP recovering from an early morning low $0.51591 to break through the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $0.5225 to strike a morning high $0.52795 before easing back, the day’s major support and resistance levels left untested.

For the day ahead, a hold above $0.5225 would support a run at $0.53 levels to bring the first major resistance level at $0.5378 into play before any pullback, $0.54 levels and the second major resistance level at $0.5515 unlikely to be in play, barring particularly positive news hitting the wires.

Failure to hold above the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $0.5225 could see Ripple’s XRP fall through the morning low $0.51591 to $0.50 levels, bringing the day’s first major support level at $0.5077 into play before any recovery, sub-$0.50 support levels unlikely to be in play on the day, barring materially negative news hitting the wires.

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The Best Altcoins

altcoins

Looking at the ICO market alone, there have been a total of 1,161 ICOs in 2018, at the time of writing, with total funds raised reaching a whopping $7.18bn.

In 2017, there were a total of 875 ICOs that raised $6.213m, an average $7.1m raised per ICO, compared with this year’s $6.18m. Going back to 2016, there were just 29 ICOs that raised a total of $90.25m, equivalent to an average $3m per ICO.

The growth is been exponential and with it, the number of altcoins that exist with little to no hope of ever going mainstream have also seen a sizeable increase, creating a minefield for prospective investors looking for a suitable investment that would be more of a long-term position than the short-term speculative trades that have fuelled the cryptomarkets over the last 12-months.

In the selection process of an altcoin, there are certainly some basic steps that are worth following, as one of the most important things an investor needs to do is to strip away possible scams and projects that will never get off the ground. After all, the ICO market is still largely unregulated.

Some of the key steps in peeling away the cryptomarket layers in search of a viable altcoin include:

  • Successful Initial Coin Offering: It goes without saying that selecting an altcoin that failed to successfully raise the required funds during its ICO are probably best left untouched, when considering the sizeable number of altcoins to choose from.
  • White Paper: The quality of the white paper, not just in terms of the team’s goals, but also what they are trying to achieve and why, with the appropriate technological detail is essential. A lack of a white paper or one with little detail that provides prospective investors with little on what will be on offer and how funds raised will be used should also be avoided.
  • ICO Rating: There’s no harm in reviewing analysis of the altcoin’s ICO and then assessing how the team has performed since fundraising, with successful completion of milestones, with little to no delay, a demonstration of strong capabilities to deliver the blockchain to market.
  • Sponsors and the Team: By viewing the altcoin’s website, you can evaluate the level of experience the team has and who stands behind the team, full bios being a must. In addition, regular updates on progress against the project roadmap will provide some insight into an altcoin’s prospects down the road.
  • The Offering, its Value, and Outlook: As is the case with any investment, it ultimately boils down to supply and demand. While the broader market largely tracks itself, driven by news and altcoin inclusion onto exchanges, the value proposition will become a major influence on the outlook for an altcoin and there have been some examples of altcoins outperforming the broader market due to successful adoption in the real world. Looking for solutions and product offerings that are likely to be adopted should be a consideration.

Looking across the broader market, there are a number of interesting altcoins that could see widespread adoption in the real world, and whose progress to date ticks the boxes set out above. Of the majors:

Ripple’s XRP (“XRP”): From the major altcoins in existence, Ripple’s platform has garnered the most interest to date, with Ripple delivering almost instantaneous cross-border money transfers with minimal fees. Ripple is in direct competition with financial institutions that have already begun to test the various platforms on offer. Transaction times are at around 4 seconds and transaction fees being equivalent to $0.004.

Stellar’s Lumen (“XLM”): Unlike true cryptocurrencies, the Stellar platform was developed to support cross-border transfers of value, including but not limited to payments. Chained conversions support multi-currency transactions, with Stellar’s Lumen being an intermediary currency. The Stellar network searches for the best available exchange rate on offer, which could either be a simple exchange from U.S Dollar to UK Sterling or via a chain, U.S Dollar to EUR to Swiss Franc to UK Sterling. Stellar’s Lumen is the intermediary between each individual link of the chain or between direct exchanges. Transaction times of between 2-5 seconds certainly put this high on the choice of platforms for cross-border transfers of value.

Litecoin (“LTC”): As a true cryptocurrency and in competition with Bitcoin to become the chosen alternative to fiat currency. Faster transaction times, a larger number of coins and early adoption by the market to remit cross border at speeds far greater than those on offer at financial institutions support longevity and relative price stability in more volatile market environments.

Looking across the rest of the altcoins, there are some value propositions that deliver interesting solutions to the real world, though significant uncertainty will deliver sizeable swings in price until there is some degree of traction. Some smaller altcoins by market cap, but nonetheless interesting include:

Civic (“CVC”): Developed to facilitate the better management of digital identities, incorporating blockchain verification technology to secure and protect the transfer of personal information. With so much data theft from the World Wide Web, a viable solution to identity protection is needed.

GIFTO (“GTO”): Developed to deliver a virtual gifting model, where the network is able to purchase virtual gifts with GIFTO tokens (GTOs) to transfer value to content creators on YouTube, Instagram or any other content / social media platform. The team behind GIFTO has already delivered Uplive, an existing non-blockchain platform that generates significant income for tens of thousands of content creators from their fan base.

Blockchain – Here to Stay and in Rapid Adoption Mode

blockchain

There will be few that will argue against the evolution of blockchain technology and the anticipated benefits of blockchain to the real world, with a broad spectrum of industries testing blockchain technology in a bid to take advantage of the technology that most believe will deliver, not only efficiency gains across multiple industries, but deliver much needed transparency and data protection that has been lacking for many years.

Social media platforms, media companies, financial institutions and more have all been victims of identity theft and in some cases, the likes of Sony and Facebook springing to mind, the outcomes have been somewhat embarrassing to the industry moguls and to the shareholders who ultimately pay the price.

Scalability, data protection, and cost-effectiveness are certain words that most would consider when exploring advancements in a particular business and blockchain technology and the continued advancements certainly deliver on all three counts.

Some hesitation in adoption has been apparent across a number of industries, while others have been incorporated into everyday practices with ease, Ripple’s various cross-border payment platforms being one and the degree of success may have as much to do with a team’s ability to appropriately position the technology, enabling the right industries to explore and ultimately adopt.

As time passes, more testing is underway, with multinationals even looking to enter partnerships to develop need specific blockchain technology that further reinforces the positive outlook for the technology developed and rolled out in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis.

While the news wires have been relatively silent on the cryptocurrency front, it’s been a very different story on the blockchain front, with Central Banks, financial institutions, logistics and trade companies, gaming sites, media, and entertainment organizations and e-commerce platforms, to name but a few, busy behind the scenes developing and beta testing technology with the sole intention to adapt and move forward.

Why the euphoria?

Simply put, it’s a case of cutting out the middleman, generating fees without the cream being taken off the top, which should ultimately translate into wide profit margins, for some at least.

White papers of the more successful blockchain launches have not fallen short in highlighting the shortcomings of industry practices and so, the only thing that remains is for the right people to be in the right place to deliver on the promise of what the white papers contain.

The blockchain revolution has started and it’s not going to end any time soon.

Bitcoin Cash – Uncertainty Weighs Ahead of the Hard Fork

Bitcoin Cash

Demand for a crypto ahead of a hard fork has traditionally come on the expectation that there would be no disruption to the original coin, with hash rates having supported the likes of Bitcoin in previous hard forks that had ironically resulted in the creation of Bitcoin Cashback in 2017.

This time around it’s a far too unfamiliar story for the cryptomarket, with the uncertainty leading to Bitcoin Cash sliding 21.99% from last Wednesday’s November high $646.8 to Monday’s $504.7 low, the reversal wiping out the more customary pre-hard fork rally that was seen on Sunday, 4th November, where Bitcoin Cash rallied 18.76% on hopes of another seamless hard fork and upgrade.

Going into the Bitcoin Cash hard fork this Thursday, 15th November has investors and prospective investors eyeing hash rates, with the newswires busy updating the respective hash rates of Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV, the divided camps that are ultimately being influenced by Bitcoin Cash mining giants Bitmain and CoinGeek.

At stake is the future of Bitcoin Cash and the uncertainty has grown in recent days, with news of Bitfinex, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, stating that while they will support the Bitcoin Cash hard fork, they will not take sides until the completion of the hard fork, leaving the Bitcoin Cash community to deliver consensus on the fork and ultimately decide the fate of Bitcoin Cash as we know it today.

Investors’ hope of being able to receive Bitcoin SV coins at a ratio of 1:1 to Bitcoin Cash coins held is in question just 2-days ahead of the hard fork and as a result, few are taking the plunge, which continues to pressure Bitcoin Cash to the downside.

To make matters worse, conflicting reports hitting the wires are indicating 51% hash rates in favor of both sides of the camp, depending upon the report and the timing of the data.

Adding to the uncertainty, the cryptomarket is also looking at futures prices of both Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV, a number of exchanges have set up respective futures tokens to provide some guidance on market support.

Hash rates are in favor of Bitcoin SV, while futures token values are favoring Bitcoin ABC.

The market’s betting on Bitcoin ABC, based on futures prices, but with hash rates going the other way, Thursday could be a dark day for Bitcoin Cash and the broader market.

Crypto Mining Farms

Crypto mining farm

While a number of altcoins look to pin back the rise to power of mining cartels by developing blockchains fuelled by cryptocurrencies that are mined using hybrid consensus algorithms, there remains a large number of blockchains that are run on proof-of-work consensus algorithms that continue to support the existence of mining pools and more importantly and of greater significance, mining farms.

What is a Mining Farm?

In the early years of the cryptomarket, only a handful of cryptocurrencies existed and mining for the likes of Bitcoin was particularly easy, with miners able to use basic desktop computers.

As the price of Bitcoin rallied, mining interest for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has seen a significant rise, with miners having to not only shift away from normal desktops to ASICs hardware but also to build warehouses of hardware created for the sole purpose of mining cryptocurrencies.

Unlike mining with the use of the traditional desktops, which were not created for the mining of cryptocurrencies, these warehouses, better known as mining farms, have no other purpose and run 24/7, 365-days a year.

Outside of the investment into the necessary hardware and land to build a mining farm, the other main cost comes from the electricity required to mine cryptocurrencies.

Mining farms tend to be built in countries that have cooler climates and also lower electricity costs, with mining farms needing to consider the costs associated with, not just running the hardware 24-7, but also ensuring that the hardware doesn’t overheat, the combination of which can have a significant influence on mining profitability.

Farm Mining

While particularly lucrative for mining farms that have been able to capture a sizeable portion of hashrates, mining is key to supporting cryptocurrency blockchains, the mining process ultimately being the validation of transactions on the respective cryptocurrency blockchains.

With the number of transactions anticipated to continue increasing with time as greater adoption takes place, farm mining is likely to be the only viable method of mining to meet the growing volume of transactions.

For blockchains with proof-of-work consensus algorithms, such as Bitcoin, the entire concept of decentralization would be lost without mining and, as mining difficulty increases, more individual miners are pushed out due to rising power consumption and narrowing profit margins.

The shift in the mining landscape has left the mining of cryptocurrencies in the hands of mining farms, which are now considered to have the lowest barriers to entry into the crypto market.

The growth of farm mining is particularly important for blockchains that are run on proof-of-work consensus algorithms, a greater distribution of hash power restoring the ethos of decentralization, by removing the control of blockchain advancement away from the longer-standing mining farms.

The Future

Government regulations and a general animosity towards Bitcoin and the broader cryptomarket has raised questions on whether local power grids will be willing and able to continue supporting the rising consumption of electricity to fuel cryptocurrency mining.

Outside of the animosity is what has become the highly debated impact on the environment, cryptocurrency mining now consuming such large amounts of electricity that the media have begun publishing studies suggesting the Bitcoin mining uses more power than actual mining.

With such concerns and existing government control on the cost of power, mining farms have begun to source their own power, which is independent of community grids that are often either state-owned or subsidized by taxpayer money.

One such mining facility being built in British Columbia is reported to have installed its very own power substation, with 85 megawatts capacity generated from hydroelectricity, the power being generated enough to support a city of 50,000 homes.

Controlling a key cost variable in the mining process certainly makes sense and, with mining farms having generated sizeable income in recent years, particularly over the last 12-18 months, the availability of capital is there to break free from possible state control or influence, those unable to unlikely to be able to compete with the eventual power grid independents.

While managing cost variables is certainly a key step in the process, the other sizeable cost impact is the actual hardware. One can only imagine that there are developers hard at work, with the aim of developing mining hardware that is far more efficient than existing ASICs.

Ethereum – Where’s the Support?

Ethereum

While the recent declines have been relatively mild, largely attributable to the lack of volume and volatility since mid-October, an extended bearish trend has been intact for some time, with ETH/USD having slumped from the first week of May swing hi $828.97 to a mid-September swing lo $167.

Since the mid-September swing lo, ETH/USD attempted a run at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $323.23 in late September, with a high $255, but came up well short and it’s been millpond since for ETH/USD and the broader market, barring a number of anomalies including Bitcoin Cash’s recent moves ahead of Thursday’s hard fork.

For the crypto bulls, the line in the sand is $220, with ETH/USD pulling back on any attempts at a breakout to late September’s $255 high.

At the time of writing, ETH/USD was down 0.88% to $206.93, with the negative bias intact, ETH/USD falling from a start of a day morning high $208.77 to a morning low $205 before steadying, the tight ranges leaving the day’s major support and resistance levels untested.

For the crypto bulls, the good news has been the significant support at $200, with buying appetite evident on any pullbacks to sub-$200 levels, though the lack of a catalyst for the broader market continues to leave ETH/USD pinned back at sub-$220 levels.

For the day ahead, the early losses may be heavier than recent days, with negative sentiment surrounding the Bitcoin Cash hard fork weighing, but with the day’s first major support level at $206.77 there to provide ETH/USD with the necessary support to avoid another reversal to sub-$200 levels, treading water for now may not be a bad thing.

Ethereum Daily Chart
Ethereum Daily Chart

Longer term, the general outlook for ETH/USD and blockchain technology adoption remains positive, with ETH/USD’s position and function within the cryptomarket supportive of an eventual recovery, though this may take some time, regulatory uncertainty continuing to limit any broad-based market recovery.

For the bears, today’s third major support level at $200.56 will be the key test, buying appetite expected to pick up, though any material reversal could see the mid-September swing lo tested before any recovery.

All You Need to Know About the Upcoming Bitcoin Cash Hard Fork

Bitcoin Cash Fork

For the core developers, it was an attempt to retain some level of decentralization in a centralized mining environment, with the Bitcoin mining cartel looking to improve capacity to improve transaction times and therefore income.

Having only been created back in August 2017, a hard fork earlier in the year was relatively seamless, the May hard fork resulting in a pre-fork rally on hopes of a fresh cryptocurrency reward for Bitcoin Cash coins held at the time of the fork driving demand for Bitcoin Cash. The last fork, back in May of this year saw Bitcoin Cash rally from an early April low $600.1 to the first week of May $1,849.9.

The upcoming fork is scheduled for 15th November and, in stark contrast to the fork earlier in the year, Bitcoin Cash has been in rapid retreat in the last week, with Bitcoin Cash sliding to a November low $518.2% on Sunday, the reversal from the previous Sunday’s 18.8% rally to $571.6 seeing Bitcoin Cash down 9.34% over the period.

Hopes of a Bitcoin Cash hard fork rally have been dashed this time around and Bitcoin Cash continues to sit in the hands of the bears, with the upcoming hard fork looking to be far from seamless, there being quite a division of consensus ahead of the main event.

Hard forks are all about consensus and, while there was the necessary consensus in May to support the upgrade, this time around there is no consensus

What is the Bitcoin Cash Hard Fork Looking to Achieve?

Hard forks are not a rare occurrence for Bitcoin Cash, with the team looking to continue making improvements to the platform to make it a more viable option as an alternative to fiat currency than Bitcoin.

For the coming hard fork, the two sides of the fence are:

  • Bitcoin ABC, which is looking to make a number of upgrades, including the introduction of the use of Oracles and cross-chain atomic swaps to deliver a smart contact offering. Forward-looking, the team has also proposed some block adjustments to address scalability down the road, using a technique called canonical transaction ordering.
  • Craig Wright is backing Bitcoin SV and is proposing to increase the block size to 128MB from Bitcoin Cash’s current 32MB, with no other changes. Back in May, the block size was increased from 8MB to 32MB.

The Bitcoin ABC team are against the increase in block size and that’s where the disagreement has occurred, with Bitcoin ABC and Bitman, one of Bitcoin Cash’s largest miners sitting on one side of the fence.

Craig Wright is against the idea of Bitcoin Cash’s blockchain being used for non-cash transactions and canonical transactions, with nChain and the support it receives from one of Bitcoin Cash’s other largest miners CoinGeek, also being against canonical transactions, whilst supporting the proposed blockchain increase to 128MB.

Bitcoin SV, with its support from Bitcoin Cash miner CoinGeek, will be looking to take on new miners in support of Bitcoin SV, with CoinGeek and nChain reportedly having a higher hash power than Bitcoin ABC & Bitman, which is contributing to the downward trend seen in Bitcoin Cash ahead of the fork.

What to Do in the Days after the Hard Fork:

  • Avoid holding Bitcoin Cash coins on an exchange and keep them in a wallet with private keys, a hard wallet preferred.
  • Avoid making any transactions in the days after the Bitcoin Cash hard fork and wait until there is some clarity on what’s going on.
  • Wait for advice on how to access Bitcoin SV coins and which exchanges are supporting Bitcoin SV.

Last Thoughts

While upgrades and enhancements are traditionally a good thing for any product, particularly one so new as Bitcoin Cash, the real issue lies in the breakup of Bitcoin Cash and the creation of yet another possible alternative to Bitcoin as a viable competitor to fiat currency.

The downward trend in Bitcoin Cash ahead of the hard fork reflects, not only a lack of support for Bitcoin SV, with those looking to receive Bitcoin SV needing to hold onto Bitcoin Cash at the time of the fork, but also some anxiety over the future of Bitcoin Cash ahead of the fork.

Some disruption and fallout are to be expected as a result of the ongoing disagreement between the 2-sides and one thing that has become apparent from is the lack of decentralization, an issue that other blockchains have attempted to address through hybrid consensus algorithms that limit the powers of miners in support blockchain development and adoption.

As the war of words between Craig Wright, who claims to be Satoshi Nakamoto, and Bitcoin ABC continues, more pain is likely ahead of Thursday’s fork and the worst possible outcome for existing Bitcoin Cash holders would be for Bitcoin SV to become the dominant coin come the weekend, Bitcoin SV miners currently threatening to mine empty blocks on Bitcoin Cash that would ultimately render Bitcoin Cash useless.

Investors and speculators will be looking at the direction of Bitcoin SV, an IOU, on supported exchanges and the direction of Bitcoin Cash, with where the hash power sits at the day of the fork key to which side comes out on top.

The Steady Cryptomarket: Volatility Remains Low

Crypto market

Following last December’s record highs across the cryptomarket that saw Bitcoin strike an all-time high $19,891, things have not gone according to plan for the Bitcoin bulls and the broader market, with an extended bearish trend striking the markets through this year.

While bearish, with Bitcoin sliding to 2018 low $5,755 back in late June, the market was certainly energized with volumes on the higher side and news-driven moves seeing $1,000 swings in a matter of hours not weeks.

The volatility seen through the much of the year contributed to the uptick in volumes as investors and traders from other asset classes were drawn in to trade the daily swings that were sizeable when comparing to even the more exotic currencies and the global equity markets.

Key to the volatility was the news and investor reaction to chatter from both governments and regulators on the cryptomarket and the need for greater oversight and there are the hacks to fuel government desire for greater control.

China was banning just about everything, while Japan and South Korea introduced more stringent measures to address money laundering and worse. In spite of the shift in the regulatory landscape, volumes continued to hold steady as did the volatility, until October at least.

Few will argue that Bitcoin and the broader market need to go through a number of key events to draw in a wider investor group and, more importantly, the institutional money.

When looking at the global equity markets, by comparison, the Dow Jones is comprised of approximately 80% institutional investor money and 20% retail. For the Chinese equity markets, we’re looking at the reverse, 80% retail and just 20% institutional. There are hopes that this will change as the larger Chinese stocks become included into the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a process ongoing at present.

Until this process is complete, however, and the stickier institutional money enters the market, the wild swings will continue, with even the Chinese government unable to halt the sell-offs we’ve seen in recent years.

While the good news for Bitcoin is that there are the Bitcoin whales, who continue to hold onto their sizeable number of Bitcoins and hefty returns, Bitcoin and the broader cryptomarket has hit a wall in recent weeks.

The slide in volumes and volatility can be attributed to two main events that have held the cryptomarket to ransom since the summer. The first is the planned rollout of unified rules and regulations for the cryptomarket by the G20, with the second being the SEC’s pending decisions on 9 Bitcoin ETF applications that had in fact been declined in the late summer, only for the decisions to be placed under review.

There may be a difference of opinion on which has had the greatest influence on the broader market and ultimately weighed on volumes and volatility, but when looking at the more mature asset classes, the introduction of institutional money can only truly materialize when there is an appropriate regulatory framework.

China’s inclusion into the MSCI’s Emerging Markets Index is a case in point, where the MSCI held back until there were the appropriate transparency and necessary access to the market.

Can the SEC give the green light for institutional money to begin flooding into Bitcoin and the broader market ahead of a unified set of rules and regulations?

Perhaps the much talked about a slide in volatility through October and the early part of November answers the question.

In the event that the SEC actually approves even one of the 9 Bitcoin ETF applications, the amount of institutional money that will likely actually enter the market, with the existing framework, is unlikely to be close to the sizes that the market has hoped for, not until the G20s rules and regulations at least and that’s been delayed until next summer.

Extensions and postponements have ultimately left sidelined investors on the sidelines and those already holding positions in a holding pattern, the lack of a catalyst creating the millpond effect that is not just evident in Bitcoin, but even with the more volatile cryptocurrencies, such as Ripple’s XRP.

Going back to the end of the 1st quarter, Bitcoin’s volatility in the month of March stood at 4.69, while in October it had fallen to 1.75 and for the current month sits at 0.85.

For Litecoin that tracks the broader market more closely, therefore a fairer comparison when looking at volatility, volatility in March stood at 4.93 before sliding to 2.93 in October and 2.89 for the current month.

Are the days of volatility and high volumes over?

Unlikely, when considering the maturity of the broader market and particularly when considering the anticipated impact of an eventual approval of cryptomarket ETFs and a more rigid regulatory framework to support the introduction of institutional money.

Which comes first remains to be seen, with investors now sitting patiently waiting for the SEC’s post 5th November decision on the 9.